The numbers behind every poker decision. Each one here is calculated exactly, not guessed.
What you get dealt
A pocket pair (any)
5.9%
1 in 17
Pocket aces
0.45%
1 in 221
Two suited cards
23.5%
1 in 4.3
Ace-king
1.2%
1 in 83
At least one ace
14.9%
1 in 6.7
What the flop brings
With a pair: a set or better on the flop
11.8%
1 in 8.5
Two different cards: pair at least one of them
32.4%
1 in 3.1
Suited cards: a flush on the flop
0.84%
1 in 119
Suited cards: a flush draw on the flop
10.9%
1 in 9.1
Outs: the cards that save you
An out is an unseen card that would make your hand the winner. Rule of thumb: after the flop, outs × 4 ≈ your % to hit by the river. After the turn, outs × 2.
Draw
Outs
On the turn
By the river
Rule of 4
Flush draw
9
19.1%
35.0%
36%
Open-ended straight draw
8
17.0%
31.5%
32%
Gutshot straight draw
4
8.5%
16.5%
16%
Two overcards
6
12.8%
24.1%
24%
Flush + open-ended draw
15
31.9%
54.1%
60%
Pocket pair to a set
2
4.3%
8.4%
8%
Every number of outs
Outs
On the turn
On the river (from the turn)
By the river
Rule of 4
1
2.1%
2.2%
4.3%
4%
2
4.3%
4.3%
8.4%
8%
3
6.4%
6.5%
12.5%
12%
4
8.5%
8.7%
16.5%
16%
5
10.6%
10.9%
20.4%
20%
6
12.8%
13.0%
24.1%
24%
7
14.9%
15.2%
27.8%
28%
8
17.0%
17.4%
31.5%
32%
9
19.1%
19.6%
35.0%
36%
10
21.3%
21.7%
38.4%
40%
11
23.4%
23.9%
41.7%
44%
12
25.5%
26.1%
45.0%
48%
13
27.7%
28.3%
48.1%
52%
14
29.8%
30.4%
51.2%
56%
15
31.9%
32.6%
54.1%
60%
16
34.0%
34.8%
57.0%
64%
17
36.2%
37.0%
59.8%
68%
18
38.3%
39.1%
62.4%
72%
19
40.4%
41.3%
65.0%
76%
20
42.6%
43.5%
67.5%
80%
Pot odds in one line
Divide what you have to call by the final pot (the pot, the bet and your call). If your chance of winning is higher, the call makes money in the long run. Example: the pot is 100 and your opponent bets 50. You need 50 ÷ 200 = 25%.